Electric bills forecast to soar with record summer heat, straining household budgets

Summer temperatures are expected to break records this year. So are electric bills.

U.S. electricity bills are forecast to reach new heights, jumping 7.9% to total $719 from June through September. That average is up from $661 over the same four-month stretch last year, say the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) and the Center for Energy Poverty, and Climate (CEPC).

Low-income families who can least afford higher bills will be hit hardest, said Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA, which represents state governments in federal programs to help low-income families pay water, heating, and cooling bills.

“The dangers of extreme heat leave low-income families at heightened risk, due to lack of access to affordable summer cooling, increasing electric costs and cutbacks in funding” of federal aid programs, Wolfe said.

Why are electric bills soaring?

Many factors influence electricity costs: the price of fuel that utilities use to generate power; the cost of building and maintaining plants and grids that transmit it; and regulations.

But the main factor driving up electric bills this summer is weather. Extreme heat will prompt people to crank up their air conditioning, raising energy bills for homes and businesses.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gives 2024 a 61% chance of topping last summer’s record heat.

From June through August, temperatures are forecast to run at least 2 degrees above historical averages across more than half of the country, according to AccuWeather.

Which states will see the highest electric bills this summer?

According to NEADA, customers in all these states are expected to pay above the national average from June through September:

• Those who live in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana will pay an average of $858, an increase of $15, or 1.8%, from last year. That’s the smallest percentage rise in the country.
• West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Delaware, Maryland, and Washington D.C. customers will pay an average of $792, up $58, or 7.4%, from last summer.
• Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama customers will see rates jump $78, or 10.1%, from last year to an average of $774.
• New Englanders in Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut will pay $40 more on average to $760 this summer for a 5.3% increase.

Keeping cool:How to find the right A/C.

Which states will pay the smallest bills?

NEADA estimates customers in these states will pay below the national average:

• Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Illinois, and Indiana customers will pay on average $581, or $57 more prompted by a 9.8% increase from last year.
• People in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri will owe on average $625, or $44 more than last year.
• Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico customers will see bills of $654 on average, up 6.5%, or $42, from a year ago.
• Those in New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey will, on average, see bills jump $84 to $691 from last year. That’s a jump of 12.2%, tying for the largest percentage increase in the country.
• Hawaii, Alaska, California, Oregon, and Washington customers will pay on average $693, or $84 more. That’s 12.2% more than last year and ties for the largest percentage gain in the nation.

Savings:How to lower your electric bill.

Who’s hurt most?

Low-income Americans.

Congress cut $2 billion in funding from the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) this year, forcing states to reduce financial assistance by about one million households and scale back average heating and cooling benefits, Wolfe said.

Many people are in danger of utilities shutting off their power. Only 17 states and the District of Columbia provide consumers with some summer shut-off protections, Wolfe said.

And18% of households below the poverty line don’t have any AC, the Energy Information Administration said in 2011.

“In less extreme situations, a family can ride out a hot day by opening their windows, taking a cool shower, and hoping it cools down at night,” Wolfe said. “But when the heat persists for weeks, or the outside air is dangerous, opening a window will only make things worse.”

Heat deaths          

Exposure to extreme heat also leads to more deaths.

In 2023, a record number of people died from the record heat, according to an AP analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. Death certificates of more than 2,300 people who died in the U.S. last summer mention the effects of excessive heat, the highest number in 45 years of records, the analysis said.

With May already breaking heat records, 2024 could be even deadlier, the analysis said.

How to keep electric bills low?

For those with AC:

• Stretch your dollars by raising the temperature setting just slightly. “Every 1 degree a family reduces its air conditioning, they save about 3% on their utility bill,” Wolfe said.
• Clean your AC. Replace or clean the air filters to ensure proper airflow. Then, gently clean the condenser coils and remove any debris from around the outdoor unit. “A well-maintained air conditioner will consume less energy and keep your home cooler with ease,” said Brandon Young, CEO of Payless Power, a retail energy provider.
• Unclog air vents. Vacuum the dust and debris accumulated in and around your air vent, Young said.’
• Optimize ceiling fans. “Set your ceiling fans to rotate counterclockwise to create a cooling breeze,” Young said. “This simple adjustment can make your home feel several degrees cooler, allowing you to raise the thermostat setting and save on energy costs.”

For those without AC:

The government should provide more shut-off protections and funding to help pay bills and weatherize homes, Wolfe said.

“Access to affordable cooling is more than a matter of comfort,” he said. “For many Americans, especially low-income households and members of vulnerable populations, the difference can be as stark as either staying safe and cool or ending up in the emergency room.”

Medora Lee is a money, markets, and personal finance reporter at USA TODAY. You can reach her at mjlee@usatoday.com and subscribe to our free Daily Money newsletter for personal finance tips and business news every Monday through Friday morning.